Ethanol Matters
The big story of 2008:  Ethanol plants push corn & corn byproduct prices to all-time highs.
Scientific Concepts Pushed Beyond Most People's Understanding... And Most Definitely Beyond Any Politician's Understanding.


 

Now You Compete With Your Car For Food
Pilgrim's Pride, the largest US chicken processor, announced that it is closing a North Carolina chicken processing facility. This move is another verification that farming, energy, and food are closely connected.
The company announced that it will also close six distribution centers due to increased feed costs. Feed costs have significantly increased over the recent year and are squeezing profit margins for all livestock and poultry processors.
Corn and soy meal are the main ingredients in poultry rations. Demand from the ethanol industry has increased corn prices. At the same time, competition for farm land to grow corn and soy has increased prices for these and other grains.
Closure of this facility will reduce Pilgrim's Pride's processing capacity by about 1.5% and the industry's capacity by about 0.4%. Pilgrim's Pride's decrease in chicken production will increase chicken prices for all consumers.
This plant closing will have a small impact upon industry capacity and increase poultry prices somewhat, however it is an indicator of the trend to close food processing plants in favor of opening ethanol plants. The grains that would have been used to feed chickens and other livestock will instead be used to manufacture ethanol.
Ethanol production will increase due to government subsidizes and legislation mandating that more ethanol be used in cars.
This production pattern change from food to ethanol is an indicator of changes to be made by Pilgrim's Pride and other food processors to curtail production and cut costs.
In the coming years there will be less chicken to eat and more ethanol to fuel vehicles. Hungry drivers may have ethanol to fuel their drives to grocery stores, but they may not be willing to pay the high prices for chicken when they arrive.

Reality Update
Archer Daniels Midland, one of biggest ethanol producers in the US, reported that its income from corn-based biofuel fell by 48% in the three months ending September 30. This was the result of a decline in the price it can charge for ethanol. Its loss could prompt the company to change plans to build an additional 550 million gallon ethanol capacity in 2008. ADM recently said it would switch production of corn away from ethanol toward high-fructose corn syrup or lysine production if ethanol becomes unprofitable.

The price of ethanol was at an all-time high in August, 2007, but has collapsed in recent months due to an oversupply. Several companies in the ethanol production business have abandoned constructing new plants and have cut production. VeraSun, the third-biggest US ethanol producer, recently halted work on a 110 million-gallon facility in Indiana stating that oversupply was the reason.

Consumers everywhere will soon pay more for many food products, including chicken, beef, bread, and more.
As of February, 2007, there are 112 active ethanol plants operating. There are another 77 under construction. Seven other ethanol plants are being expanded.
Making money on by operating an ethanol producing plant has become increasingly difficult. That is because corn prices have been rise surging at the same time that oil prices have been falling to 18-month lows. The spread between the final sale value of finished fuel ethanol is related directly to the price of gasoline and corn. That spread is getting squeezed.
Ethanol plants are increasingly cutting into US corn supplies as new ethanol plants are being completed. These ethanol plants require huge amounts of corn. Ethanol plants are using a growing portion of all corn production, thereby decreasing the supply available for food production.
Not even one-half of all ethanol plants that have already been approved and licensed are yet complete. When all these ethanol plants come into production they will have the potential to divert a significant percentage of all corn production away from food. Humans and livestock eat corn and corn byproducts.
By licensing too many ethanol production facilities, the US government has created a situation that will increase the price of corn and related substitute grains for the foreseeable future. This will ripple through the food chain thus increasing wholesale and retail food prices.
That makes sense.      That makes little sense.

If all of today's US corn production were converted into ethanol, it would replace only 12% of our gasoline needs. True
False

The US Energy Policy Act of 2005, became law in August, 2005. It contains 551 pages of federal legislation. True
False

The Energy Policy Act increases the ethanol quota. The mandated amount of ethanol nearly doubles by 2012. It goes from 4.0 billion gallons in 2006 to 7.5 billion in 2012. True
False

Ethanol contains about 70% of the energy contained in an equal volume of gasoline. True
False

Since ethanol contains less energy, it actually displaces only about 3.5% of gasoline by energy content. That is the only measure the engine cares about -- Useful Energy. True
False

Since ethanol contains less energy per gallon, the consumer will need to buy more gallons to drive the same distance as when gasoline is used. True
False

Decide quickly. Make the wrong decision. And, now you have made the situation worse. And so it is with ethanol, global warming & other unproven, emerging technological axioms as they are prematurely over-promoted and made to pass as panaceas. Agree
Disagree

The Energy Policy Act of 2005, mandates that, starting in 2006, the average gallon of "gas" must contain 2.78% ethanol. True
False

Ethanol's formula is C2H6O. More descriptively, its formula is C2H5OH.            That us interesting.
I don't understand this.

Ethanol, grain alcohol, is the US' most widely used biofuel. About 3.9-billion gallons were produced in the US in 2005. This amount is trivial compared with the 140-billion gallons of gas used in the US. True
False

Achieving the federal mandate to increase ethanol use to 7.5-billion gallons by 2012 is realistic. However, it won’t make much difference in the price of fuel, in foreign oil dependency, in air pollution, or for global warming. The primary fuel in six years will still be gasoline. If consumption increases at historical rates, the extra ethanol will barely offset the growth in gasoline consumption expected by then -- and is unlikely to reduce it. Agree
Disagree

It takes 1.48 gallons of ethanol to equal the energy in a gallon of gasoline. This means tanks and transportation capacities must be upsized if these alcohols are to replace gasoline. That will result in each vehicle carrying a heavier load of fuel -- which will reduce mileage. True
False

Ethanol is one of the alcohols often found in alcoholic beverages. True
False

Ethanol is a tasteless, flammable, colorless, and mildly toxic chemical compound. It has a distinctive odor. True
False

Government subsidies and tax breaks for corn growers and refineries are causing an artificial migration toward ethanol before significant long-term costs and impacts have been identified. True
False

Ethanol contains less energy than gasoline per given volume. Therefore a vehicle uses more ethanol-gasoline mixture to travel the same distance as it would if it were using pure gasoline. True
False

All mixtures of gasoline & ethanol contain less energy than pure gasoline. Therefore vehicles must burn more mixture to travel the same distance on the same amount of gasoline. Mixtures of ethanol & gasoline need to cost the consumer less to make up for the decreased energy content. True
False

Using ethanol has a mixed effect on vehicle emissions. The Department of Energy states that E85 in place of gasoline reduces carbon monoxide by 4% and NOx by 59%. However, it raises total hydrocarbon emission by 43%. True
False

Ethanol is free of two toxic chemicals -- benzene & xylene -- that are associated with gasoline. However, exposures to those substances are so small that no one need worry about them today. True
False

Ethanol exhaust emissions contain acetaldehydes that are not found in gasoline exhaust. True
False

Fossil fuels are used in the production of ethanol. Some studies conclude that making ethanol from agricultural crops requires more energy than is contained in the finished product. There is no academic agreement on this point.
Small differences in assumptions can profoundly alter the conclusions. For example, will the corn yield be 125 bushels per acre, or 127, or 140? These assumptions provide calculations of 2.5 gallons of ethanol per bushel, or 2.68, or 2.80, respectively.
True
False

Parts for an ethanol-enabled vehicle's fuel system cost approximately 30% more than the same part for a gasoline-powered vehicle. Your current fuel pump costing $300 will cost about $400 for tomorrow's ethanol-enabled vehicle. True
False

The US imports about 65% of its petroleum. If we assume that the ethanol in gasoline in 2012 is used entirely to displace imported oil, and we make the most favorable assumption -- that 26% of the energy is renewable -- it would reduce imports by about 1.4%. If all the ethanol production were used to reduce Persian Gulf imports, the reduction would amount to 7.4%. True
False

Ethanol's real cost today is hidden by a broad blanket of agricultural subsidies. The federal government puts up 51 cents per gallon. That alone will cost taxpayers more than $4.1 billion in 2012. True
False

Some states add an extra 10, 20 cents, and more with credits, tax reductions, and other incentives for farmers and manufacturers. True
False

Cellulosic ethanol is hoped to be the future source of ethanol. It is not yet feasible. If it were, it would already be used. The US government has been seriously funding research for about 30 years. Instead of using just the high-value seed kernels of corn as is done now -- the part that’s food -- the whole structure of the plant including stalks, leaves, and all which is not food, would go into the ethanol manufacture. And so would any other plant material, including forest thinnings & fast-growing foliage such as switch grass. True
False

A bushel of corn yields 2.8 gallons of ethanol. An acre of corn yields 144 bushels on average, or 403 gallons. At that rate, satisfying the mandate for 7.5-billion gallons by 2012 will require about 1.25-billion-more bushels of corn, which will require 8.7-million acres to grow. All to get a mere 5% ethanol into US gasoline. True
False

Switchgrass, prairie grasses, and woody plants theoretically could produce cellulosic ethanol. Today process is in the laboratory development phase. If a practical process is found to convert these to biofuel, to do so could cause a reduction in soil fertility, since they would not be plowed back into the ground to fertilize next season's crops. True
False

Producing enough ethanol for a 10% stretch of our gasoline supply would likely end most corn exports. That is about two-billion bushels now. That reduction would require planting on marginal acres not used now, and lead to high corn prices that would disrupt the economics of meat and dairy production. True
False

Manufacture of ethanol requires relatively large amounts of fresh water. That means that more water must be purified and/or found just to sustain current human & animal level of consumption. True
False

Ethanol is corrosive. Ethanol cannot be transported using the existing gasoline transportation pipeline network. Ethanol must be transported in tanker trucks or railway cars specially constructed of corrosive-resistant materials. True
False

Manufacture of ethanol requires relatively large amounts of fresh water. That leaves less fresh water for human & animal consumption. True
False

Running E85 reduces a vehicle's range roughly 28%. With fewer than 600 stations selling E85 fuel dispersed across 37 states, why have GM, Ford, and DaimlerChrysler been cranking out these flex-fuel vehicles by the millions? The answer is the mandatory Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards. Federal law requires that the cars an automaker offers for sale average 27.5 mpg; light trucks must achieve 22.2 mpg. Failure to achieve these results can result in substantial fines.
However, relief is available to manufacturers that build E85 vehicles in order to encourage their production.
The irony here is that E85 gets poorer fuel economy than gasoline. However, for CAFE purposes, the government counts only the 15% gasoline content of E85. Not counting the ethanol, which is the other 85%, produces a seven-fold increase in E85 mpg.
True
False

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